Poll: Canadians want budget pass; no appetite to coalition
Angus Reid poll results – Half of Canadians approve of the federal budget presented yesterday by the Conservative government and a majority wants the House of Commons to pass it, a new Angus Reid Strategies poll conducted for CTV has found.
In the online survey of a representative national sample conducted last night, 50% of respondents approve of the document presented by the federal government, with the highest support coming in Alberta (66%), Ontario (57%) and Atlantic Canada (57%).
Approval for the economic stimulus package reaches 57% in the entire country, while support for the tax cuts included in the budget stands at 56%.
Deficit and Recovery
Almost half of Canadians (49%) believe the federal deficit of $64 million predicted for the next two years is a manageable situation for the future, while two-in-five (39%) describe it as a severe impediment.
In addition, 43% of respondents express confidence in the budget promoting economic recovery in Canada (4% Very confident; 39% Moderately confident) while 50% are not as certain (41% Not too confident; 9% Not confident at all).
Impact of the Budget
Almost two-thirds of Canadians (63%) believe the budget will have a positive impact in Canada, and almost half (47%) believe the spending plan will have a positive impact in their provinces—including 62% in Ontario and 56% in Alberta. Respondents in Quebec were particularly skeptical, with just 23% foreseeing positive developments for their province, while 42% expect a negative impact.
Still, almost half of Canadians (46%) believe the budget will have no impact at all on their household. Albertans lead the way in expressing personal satisfaction with the spending plan (43% expect a positive impact in their household) while less than one-in-ten Quebecers concur.
Should the Budget Pass?
A majority of Canadians (53%) believe the House of Commons should pass the federal budget, with a plurality of respondents in every region urging for the implementation of the spending plan. The highest level of rejection is in Quebec, where 30% of respondents believe the budget should not be sanctioned by the lower house.
In the event the Conservative government falls if the House of Commons votes against the budget, half of Canadians (50%) would hold a new federal election, while just over a third (36%) would prefer to have the proposed coalition of the Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP)—supported by the Bloc Québécois—forming a new government.
As was the case in the pre-budget survey conducted by Angus Reid Strategies, the coalition is a popular idea in Quebec (62%), but a majority of respondents in Alberta (75%), Atlantic Canada (60%), British Columbia (59%) and Ontario (58%) would prefer to vote again.
Analysis
After more than a decade of budget surpluses—and innumerable statements warning of dire times ahead—Canadians appeared ready to receive a federal spending plan with a deficit. The Conservative government’s proposal was not rejected by all opposition voters. Satisfaction with the document, and its main components, stands at or beyond the 50% mark. Ontario, which has been hit hard by the economic slowdown, posted particularly high numbers.
Following weeks of discussions about a possible deficit, the final numbers presented by the government are regarded as manageable for almost half of the population. Still, the picture is not completely rosy. Half of Canadians are not confident that the budget will indeed promote economic recovery in Canada.
The budget was a success in macroeconomic terms, with a majority expecting a positive impact for the country and almost half believing that their own province would also come out ahead. Still, Canadians are not particularly impressed with what the budget means for them, with 46% expecting no impact in their households.
Despite some misgivings—particularly on the size of the deficit and the way the plan will affect them directly—Canadians want to see the budget pass. A majority of respondents are in no mood for a coalition, and would prefer to have an election to decide the future government if the budget is defeated.
Tags: deficit, federal budget, pollRelated posts
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I am afraid of Iggnatief and I don’t think he will be good to the Chinese. But he is one hell of a smart guy and he will be good for Canada. I will want him as my prime minister.
So far what Iggy had done is nothing short of brilliance. By not voting down the budget will guarantee him as the next prime minister. Why settle for a coalition when you can have the whole lock, stock and barrel. I predict a Liberal majority in the next election.
Iggy will be difficult for China and the Chinese in general. He will not grandstand and get sent back with tail behind his legs like Harper; but he will work behind the scene and will be effective.
For the good of Canada, eventhough Chinese people will take a hit, we have to support Iggnatief.
I predict economic disaster for Canadians in the meantime.
iggy is smart to not approve/but approve the budget but put it nicely as giving the tories a “probation”. how smart!! “probation” is a mild kind of penalty that is easily acceptable by disgruntled canadians who got fed up with the tories bipartisan politics. “probation” also gives iggy the image of being the teacher (because he’s always been a teacher, i guess?) holding the stick. stephen harper now looks like a naughty child got caught. t
this is sooooo smart politics!
also, he easily defacto dismantled the coalition government canadians don’t like. the smart thing is, he needs not be the one to say it (since the coalition is something the liberals have signed on to). jack layton et al would say it (and he did) so the public would channel all their dislike of the coalition towards the NDP. jack layton’s argument today was so weak (he was saying both iggy and harper aren’t be trusted, ppl should all choose NDP) and sounded like a politican who doesn’t listen to canadians. i guess the ndp is the biggest looser this round. iggy WILL BE able to attract centre-right and centre-left canadians.
yes, iggy might be scary in terms of his solemn face and yes he might not be good to china (well, obama isn’t too, right?). but at least he’s reasonable and pragmatic and not driven by social conservatism ideology.
Agreed. Both Obama and Iggy will give China a run for its money. But the Chinese leadership of Hu-Wen are big boys and they will appreciate the challenges from these worthy opponents with intellect and integrity; unlike the Harper-Bush fumbling comedy axis.
Obama is the second coming of Christ; and Iggy is the second coming of Trudeau. The main difference between Iggy and Trudeau is that Trudeau loves the Chinese people. But regardless, Iggy is my man and I am looking forward for him to kick ass for Canada.
January 28, 2009
Anyone who doubts that it is costlier to give than to receive need look no further than the latest federal budget for confirmation.
While the document includes about $20 billion in new spending and another $20 billion in tax, in the end the unfocused, scatter-gun approach – no doubt the result of consulting with thousands of stakeholders and lobbyists in 84 communities and saying no to none of them – means that the $40 billion is remarkably low-impact. In short, it’s more about softening the edges of the current crisis than actually addressing it.
You’d think the Conservatives would have learned their lesson on that front from the experience with the controversial cuts to the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Fulfilling a campaign promise, they trimmed two per cent from the tax over two years, reducing it to five per cent from seven percent.
It doesn’t sound like much – and it certainly isn’t sufficient to really move the dial in terms of consumer decisions. If you’re going to buy a 40-inch flat-screen plasma TV, the difference of two per cent in tax isn’t really going to make or break your decision.
That said, however, the multiplier effect in terms of government revenue is staggering: so far, it’s estimated the GST has taken more than $12 billion out of federal coffers, with each one per cent cut adding up to a honking $6 billion to $7 billion.
All of this means that new spending programs and tax cuts in the budget, all specifically designed to help kick start consumer confidence and encourage spending, have very little actual jet power.
For example, the $3 billion Home Renovation Tax Credit is unquestionably a big-ticket item. But given that it only provides a 15 per cent credit on expenses under $10,000, the maximum amount per allowed per household is a pretty modest $1,350. Anyone who’s recently renovated a home can attest to the fact that, while it’s better than nothing, $1,350 doesn’t actually buy much in materials or labour. Especially when it takes $3 billion overall out of the collective kitty.
That brings us to the whole tax cut issue.
Again, it all sounds very jazzy and impressive, but it doesn’t boil down to all that much in the end. It’s particularly important to note that federal taxes are just part of the annual nut for Canadians: provincial taxes are unchanged and they represent a serious bite.
The budget goes into an elaborate re-jigging of tax brackets in an effort to make the middle class more confident about things like the future of their jobs and their ability to keep spending. But someone earning $81,000 ends up saving just $300 as a result or, calculated another way, 12 per paycheque if they’re paid every other week.
That barely covers the cost of a slice of pizza and a latte at the food court, let alone stimulating the entire domestic economy – although it’s a big part of the whopping $20 billion in foregone tax revenue when you multiply it by the number of working Canadians.
Similarly, the increases in tax thresholds (which are indexed to inflation anyway and therefore on the rise) from $10,000 to $10,320 generates a net tax saving of $33. In the lower tax brackets where 15 per cent tax applies to those earning $40,726 – up from $38,832 – it works out to a saving of $132.58. In the 22 per cent tax bracket (those who earn $81,452) it works out to savings of about $151.52.
When it comes to the impressive-sounding non-refundable $5,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers – an obvious attempt to shore up the devastated residential real estate market – the tax savings work out to just $750 overall. Hardly an amount that will determine whether or not you buy a home for the first time.
In other words, anyone who’s hoping for a dramatic effect from the determined push into a $64 billion budget deficit over the next couple of years should toss their calculator away and buy a rabbit’s foot.
To put a Tory spin on the golden rule that less is more, the 2009 budget is a case of more being less.
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/budget/article.aspx?cp-documentid=17238686#toolbar