Campbell loses everything, but NDP gains nothing

OK, we all know that Gordon Campbell’s popularity is flushing down the drain. However, isn’t it even a bigger problem that the NDP is failing to capture any gains while the BC Conservatives picking up support?

There was a caller to a Chinese phone-in radio show last week, saying he felt that Carole James was a nice person but he said every time he listened to James he’d feel her speech is “very annoying”. I can’t agree more. I met Carole many many times and I’ve done interview with her and Campbell. If you ask me to choose whom to be friend with, Carole was the clear choice. And I like her personality. She’s sincere and respectful. But if you ask me whom I entrust with running a complicated government, I just couldn’t relate the word “premier” with her. Sorry.

For the good for the NDP, and for the sake of offering a real alternative to Gordon Campbell, NDP definitely needs to get a fresh face to sell the party to the voters. The NDP has only themselves to blame for letting the Liberals for such a free ride… because the voters just do not see there’s any choice!

BTW, I like the idea that Christy Clark could be the next leader of the BC Libs. :)

Three-in-Four British Columbians Oppose Campbell Running in 2013

Angus Reid poll results – Just four months after winning their third majority government in British Columbia, Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberals are now a distant second behind Carole James’s BC NDP, a new Angus Reid Strategies poll has found.

The online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians found that, if an election were held today, the BC NDP would receive 45 per cent of the vote, the BC Liberals 31 per cent, the BC Green Party 11 per cent and the BC Conservatives seven per cent.

This devastating blow to the incumbent government is more a result of a drop in BC Liberal support (down 15 points since the election) than a rise for the BC NDP (up three points since the election).

Campbell’s Popularity

The plunge is in many ways driven by Campbell’s plummeting personal popularity. Only 18 per cent of respondents approve of the job he is doing as Premier, while 69 per cent disapprove. Over the last three months 71 per cent of British Columbians report that their opinion of Gordon Campbell has worsened, compared to only two per cent who say their view of him has improved.

Respondents were asked how they felt about Premier Campbell and the BC Liberals, and while some 40 per cent of voters said they like the BC Liberals, only 21per cent feel the same way about Campbell. It is significant to note that 22 per cent of people like the BC Liberals, but dislike Campbell, compared to only three per cent who said they like Campbell, but dislike the BC Liberals.

The people who like the BC Liberals but not their leader are more likely to be university educated (29%), to live in the interior and north (25%), to be over 55 years old (25%), or to live in households earning more than $100,000 a year (25%)—in essence the core of the BC Liberal electoral coalition. In fact, one-in-three people (34%) who voted BC Liberal in May feel this way.

British Columbians are nearly unanimous about their desire not to see Campbell run for a fourth term in 2013. Fully three-quarters (75%) of British Columbians moderately oppose or strongly oppose Campbell running again, including 51 per cent of those who voted BC Liberal only four months ago.

Economic Management

The opposition has been blaming the unexpectedly large provincial deficit on poor management on the part of the government, while the government has placed the blame on worldwide economic conditions hurting British Columbia.

British Columbians are more inclined to agree with the opposition, with three-in-five (60%) believing the larger deficit is the result of poor government management, and only two-in-five (40%) saying it is a result of the rocky economic climate. Only higher income people (52%) and those with university educations (57%) blame the economic climate for the larger deficit.

In terms of what needs to be done to balance the budget, nearly two-thirds of respondents (63%) said that government spending should be cut, while three-in-ten (30%) believe that the government does not need to balance the budget, and only seven per cent think taxes should be raised.

After Campbell?

Respondents were asked to assess whether several prominent provincial politicians would make a good or bad premier, in the event Gordon Campbell were to step down.

The percentage of people who gave a “moderately bad” or “very bad” rating was subtracted from those who gave a “moderately good” or “very good” rating, to get a net score. The best net score was +14 for Dianne Watts, Mayor of Surrey, followed by Christy Clark, former deputy Premier and radio host at +1.

Everyone else had negative scores including Gregor Robertson, Mayor of Vancouver at -9, Colin Hansen, Minister of Finance at -11, Carole James, Leader of the Opposition at -13, Iain Black, Minister of Small Business, Technology and Economic Development at -14 and Rich Coleman, Minister of Housing and Social Development at -21.

Carole James

Despite her opponent’s unpopularity James has not enhanced her standing amongst British Columbians. Nearly half (45%) disapprove of her performance, while only three-in-ten (29%) approve. In the last three months ,19 per cent report a worsening opinion of James, while 14 per cent say their view has improved. The majority (59%), report no change.

James’s popularity beyond her party is more ambiguous than Campbell’s, with 15 per cent of respondents saying they like James, but do not like the BC NDP, while 22 per cent like the BC NDP, but not James.

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