The rationale behind Ignatieff’s election talks

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff speaks to reporters following the Liberal's summer caucus in Sudbury, Ont., on Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2009. (CP)

So Michael Ignatieff played the crouching tiger during the summer for deliberately getting off the camera so that he could surprise his enemies on the first day of fall that he’s ready to take Canadians to the poll again? If yes, he’s quite successful.

By announcing he’s not supporting the Tories ahead of the NDP and the Bloc this time, Ignatieff is forcing his opponents to take the defense — first time in years (I’d say after Jean Chretien). Last time, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe were quick to say they weren’t supporting the Tories, even before they had a chance to read the budget. Iggy was thrown to the defensive and the sole person responsible for triggering an election. When the Liberals propped up the Harper government, the NDP and the Bloc had all the good reasons to blast BOTH the Tories and the Liberals for dragging us into an economic nightmare because the Liberals voted for the Tory budget. Iggy’s predescessor Stupid Dion chose to be absent from most votes in the house in order to avoid being blamed for propping up the government.

What a big change a summer makes!

I can see there are good reasons the Liberals don’t mind going to the poll right now:

• the economy is beginning to recover, it’ll be the last thing the Liberals want to see that Canadians link the recovery with prudent Tory stewardship;

• it’s worth the risk to take the election and take the credit of bringing Canada back to full recovery — just like they’ve been saying over and over again about how they balanced the budget (no matter how recklessly) and cleaned up the mess left by Brian Mulroney;

• as the economy is recovering, less people are disgusted by going to the poll again;

• by being the first to announce the Libs aren’t supporting the gov, the NDP would have to make the tough choice and the Libs can take the offensive this round; if those who don’t want to get into another election they have someone else to blame now;

• don’t forget that the Libs and the NDP share a large number of centre-left voters;

• the last major disappointment among Chinese Canadian voters against the Tory gov is the frozen Canada-China relation; but Harper is set to visit China in Nov which is expected widely to be the turning point for a full dethaw of the bilateral relation — by then the Libs would have one big point to sell to Chinese Canadian voters;

I was disappointed at Iggy’s disappearance during the summer too. But after yesterday’s announcement, I think he’s a real political strategist who could put up a real challenge against strategist Harper.

As Ignatiff has cancelled his China trip which was supposed to beat Harper as the first leader of a major Canadian party to brush up Canada-China relation, it’s very likely the election is inevitable. No matter what the outcome is, I agree with the the Globe’s Jeffrey Simpson that: No more minorities please.

Minority governments are okay when economic times are good, or when governments can justify massive new spending. That’s what has happened under the Harper Conservatives for four years with their minority status: big tax cuts and big spending.

First, the Harperites eliminated the fiscal surplus they had inherited with tax cuts and spending. Then, they pushed a barely balanced budget into a large deficit with huge new spending to deal with the recession.

Fiscally speaking, the Harperites haven’t made a difficult decision yet. The only decisions they have made have been the easy ones: cutting taxes and raising spending.

But as Canada crawls out of the recession and confronts the debt it has incurred, hard decisions will be required – as in tax increases and/or spending cuts. Parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page properly warned of these hard decisions this week, suggesting a firm schedule for debt repayment.

Quite soon, Mr. Page said, the costs of an aging population and the renewal of Ottawa’s health-care accord with the provinces will be adding tens of billions of additional dollars to Ottawa’s obligations. He was right to urge debate about the options soon, but his advice will certainly be ignored in a campaign that bids fair to be about anything but debate over hard decisions.

Only a majority government, or maybe a German-like “grand coalition” of Conservatives and Liberals, would have the political guts to make those hard decisions. Another minority, Conservative or Liberal, would choose the paths of least resistance and avoid hard decisions.

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