Anyway, this’s just in:

Mason Loh loses his nomination bid in Richmond (see previous story). Joe Peschisolido gets it. Raymond Chan loses out in first round… rumour is that his ballots are then thrown behind Joe.

Joe didn’t expect to win. He wasn’t in the room when the results were announced.

Alice Wong should be the happiest person tonight.

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In BC, it’s very common among new Chinese immigrants that they cannot distinguish between the federal and provincial Liberals. As Campbell is becoming BC’s worst-liked politicians with the HST and the huge deficit, federal Liberal candidates better educate their constituents that they are not — please find some creative way to do that, not just “no no no, we’re no them” and nothing solid after that.

For Ontario, I’m already seeing discussions on forums such as 51.ca that people say they won’t vote for Ignatieff because of McGuinty’s latest performance (eHealth etc).

Liberal MPs in BC are already trying to make the case that the unpopular HST is a direct consequence of manipulation from Ottawa. Here’s what the Globe and Mail said earlier:

The B.C. government had opposed harmonization since the goods and services tax was introduced in 1991. Every year, the province would consider harmonization of tax rates in its annual budget process. And every year, the government would decide the disadvantages outweighed the benefits. The government even re-affirmed its opposition earlier this year, after a provincial advisory group had urged harmonization.

Ottawa altered the balance by allowing the provinces to exempt some items and by offering cash incentives, ostensibly to help with the transition. Ontario picked up $4.3-billion, which it decided to send out to taxpayers to help pay the additional cost. B.C. was offered $1.6-billion. The money will go into the government’s general revenue. Ottawa also agreed to allow B.C. to set the HST at 12 per cent, although the harmonized tax was 13 per cent in other provinces.

Mr. Hansen talked to Mr. Campbell before going to Meech Lake for the finance ministers’ meeting; he had not yet taken a proposal for harmonization to the B.C. cabinet.

Ottawa set the timetable. B.C. had to sign on by mid-July – in less than two months – so it could introduce the tax changes on the same day as Ontario. That meant Mr. Hansen had no time to signal to the public that changes were coming, no time for public discussion or consultation. Mr. Hansen said he would have preferred to announce the tax changes in the budget on Sept. 1, but had no choice. “It’s probably obvious to everybody when we made this announcement we were not prepared [to explain the impact of the tax,]” he said. “We’re working hard to catch up.”

A memorandum of understanding on HST was signed on July 23. The blending of PST and GST means that the provincial tax will be paid on everything that is now subject to GST, except for a short list of exemptions. Several goods and services currently exempt from provincial tax, such as restaurant meals and new housing, will be subject to HST. While consumers pay more, businesses will pay less. Eliminating the provincial tax on items now exempt from GST is expected to save businesses about $1.9-billion.

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EI reform itself doesn’t warrant an election. The Liberals MUST bring some fresh AND specific ideas on how they can do a better job on the economy, though Canadians who hate the Harper government can’t wait for another chance to oust the regime. Perhaps the Grits don’t wanna unveil their plan too early — just like last time re the Green Shift — to give ammunition to the Tories for attack too early in time. I can only hope that their call for an election could make more sense as things evolve. BTW, Tories didn’t have a concrete economic plan in the 2008 election too. And they dared not to issue their full platform until the very end. I can only hope that the Grits aren’t seeing this as a good tactic.

Globe and Mail - Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are planning to unveil an unemployment insurance reform package in the coming session of Parliament, in effect undermining one of the Liberal party’s justifications for a fall election.

A bipartisan working group on EI failed to agree to changes to the program over the summer, with the Liberals accusing the Tories of not bringing any proposals to the table. Last week, when the Liberals announced their intention of defeating the government and said they would no longer attend the working group, Conservative committee member Diane Finley chastised them for walking away from the discussions.

The move to introduce their own EI plan suggests the Harper Conservatives, gearing up for an election campaign, want to shift the blame onto the opposition for failing to help the growing ranks of Canada’s unemployed.

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Three well-known names are fighting to represent the Grits to beat Conservative sitting MP Alice Wong in the next federal election. They are: former MPs Raymond Chan and Joe Peschisolido, and well-known lawyer and former chair of SUCCESS Mason Loh.

Dean Beauvais with the Liberal’s Richmond Riding Association confirmed that the three men were running for nomination. He said Chan and Peschisolido have long indicated that they wish to run. Loh joined only recently, 2-3 weeks ago.

Beauvais said the deadline for filing for nomination is over. But the sign-up for new members hasn’t. There is no date for a nomination yet.

He describes this is the most heated race for the riding since Chan and Peschisolido squared off in nomination in 2004.

Loh recently moved his law office to Richmond. Chan lost to Alice Wong in the last election. To be a Liberal candidate again, he would need to win the nomination battle.

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In the race to be the first to visit China, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has won over PM Stephen Harper.

While the PMO is still checking with China re Harper’s possible visit in Nov after the APEC meeting, Ignatieff has accepted an invitation from China’s FM Yang Jiechi and is set to depart for Beijing on Sep 4.

The official visit will last four days, when Ignatieff, together with MPs Ujjal Dosanjh, John McCallum, Scott Brison and Alexandra Mendes will visit Beijing and Shanghai.

The Liberals say they will meet with “high officials” and Ignatieff will make major speeches and meet with business people.

McCalllum said the Liberal’s China trip hopes to mend the broken Canada-China relation under the Conservative government. ADS will be one of the main focus of discussions with China.

Dosanjh adds that since the Liberals aren’t the ruling party, they cannot sign any mutually beneficial agreements with China.

Brison said they don’t know who will be meeting the Liberal delegate yet. But he said the fact that Ignatieff is able to go to China as the leader of the opposition before the ruling party leader does is a clear indication of how good and solid relation between the Liberals and China is.

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Raymond and Joe ready for Round 3?

Richmond Review – Two high-profile Liberals appear to be getting set for their rubber match, both potentially vying for the chance to bounce Richmond MP Alice Wong when a federal election is called.

Joe Peschisolido and Raymond Chan have both declared to federal Liberal riding association president Dean Beauvais their intention to seek the Liberal nomination.

“I’ve heard from both of them that they intend to run,” Beauvais told The Richmond Review of his direct conversations with Peschisolido and Chan.

In head-to-head affairs, Peschisolido and Chan are even up, both with a win and a loss.

Peschisolido was the Canadian Alliance Party (now the Conservative Party) candidate when he ousted Chan back in the 2000 federal election.

Peschisolido then crossed the floor to join the Liberals in a highly controversial move that eventually cost him when he narrowly lost to Chan for the Liberal nomination in 2004. Chan went on to win the 2004 and 2006 elections before losing the 2008 election to Conservative Alice Wong.

Beauvais said he hasn’t heard when a nomination meeting will be scheduled for Richmond, and he’s been pressing the federal Liberals for answers.

The local constituency association is actively searching for candidates, and so far only two have declared themselves, he said.

There have been rumours, Beauvais said, of a third candidate running in Richmond, but so far no other names have officially cropped up.

Former Vancouver-Kingsway candidate and Richmond resident Wendy Yuan was a name tossed about, but that’s been taken off the table, Beauvais said.

With talk of the possibility of a summer election, Beauvais he’s confident something can be worked out between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. The pair have said publicly they don’t want a summer election, and are talking about what it would take for the Liberals to approve money earmarked for federal infrastructure projects.

If the Liberals vote against the funding, that could trigger an election by bringing down the government.

Peschisolido said he’s not sure what his future holds, but said he’s been approached by federal Liberals to enter the political arena again.

“Nominations haven’t been called yet. I don’t know when that will be. I will make up my mind in the near future,” said Peschosolido, who along with four other lawyers operates a small full-service law firm with offices in Richmond, Surrey and Vancouver.

Chan said he is keeping his options open, and remains interested in pursuing the Liberal nomination in Richmond.

“I continue to work with the Liberal Party to help them out and also to make sure we do a good job as the Opposition,” he said.

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However, we should also be cautious analyzing poll results about the effectiveness of negative ads. Last year when the Tories made personal attacks at Dion, poll numbers also showed that ppl think the campaign haunted Harper more than Dion… but look what happened at last in the October election.

Nanos National Poll – Effectiveness and Impact of Ignatieff Ads (Completed June 1)

Properly crafted and validated by the political target, negative ads can be a powerful political tool.

Research by Nanos on the impact of the recent Conservative ads attacking Michael Ignatieff indicates that in the short term they have not had a significant impact. A majority of Canadians consider the ads ineffective and believe that they reflect poorly on the Conservatives.

Of note, the ads have had a marginally negative impact on the impression of Michael Ignatieff primarily among committed Conservative and NDP voters. However, the attack ads have had less of an impact in Atlantic Canada and in battleground Quebec.

Factoring the latest ballot numbers and the last six waves of Nanos tracking since the last election, the Conservative attack ads have not arrested the incremental trend which currently favours the Liberals. The conclusion is that the ads have had no discernable short term impact in favour of the Conservatives. The long term negative impact on Ignatieff remains uncertain and merits further tracking over time. This may well be the first salvo in a narrative the Conservatives are hoping to explore.

To chat about this poll join the national political online chat at Nik on the Numbers at http://www.nikonthenumbers.com. The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.nanosresearch.com. You can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology

Polling between May 26 and June 1, 2009. (Random Telephone Survey of 1,001 Canadians, 18 years of age and older). A survey of 1,001 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

For 626 respondents aware of the ad, the margin of accuracy is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Effectiveness of Ads Question: Would you say the ads were effective, somewhat effective, somewhat ineffective or ineffective? [Recall Only]

Effective 20%
Somewhat effective 15%
Somewhat ineffective 8%
Ineffective 53%
Unsure 4%

Impact of Ads on Impression of Ignatieff Question: Did the advertisement leave you with a positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or negative impression of Michael Ignatieff? [Recall only]

Positive 14%
Somewhat positive 3%
Neutral 45%
Somewhat negative 12%
Negative 22%
Unsure 4%

Impact of Ads on Impression of Conservative Party Question: Did the advertisement leave you with a positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or negative impression of the Conservatives who paid for the ad? [Recall only]

Positive 7%
Somewhat positive 3%
Neutral 20%
Somewhat negative 12%
Negative 53%
Unsure 6%

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BVoT-1B3Os

read other similar posts: Decima poll; Tory MP doesn’t like attack ads; The Harper legacy by Globe and Mail; Liberals hold narrow opinion poll lead by Reuters

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A new CP poll says Iggnatieff is now a more favourable choice for PM for Quebecors. From the Globe and Mail:

The Liberals have moved into a statistical tie with the governing Tories, according to the Nanos Research survey provided exclusively to The Canadian Press.

Liberal support stood at 34%, one point ahead of the Conservatives and up eight points from the Liberals’ dismal showing in the Oct. 14 election under the leadership of Stéphane Dion.

The Tories slipped almost five points from the election to 33% while NDP and Green support was virtually unchanged at 19% and seven% respectively.

The Liberal resurgence was particularly pronounced in Quebec, where the poll indicates the party vaulted into the lead with 39% support to 29% for the Bloc Québécois, 17% for the Tories and 14% for the New Democrats.

Voter enchantment with Mr. Ignatieff, who was hastily installed as leader last month, appeared to be the driving force behind the Liberal bounce.

Moreover, 23% of those polled said Mr. Ignatieff would make the best prime minister — double Mr. Dion’s support, although still 12 points behind Prime Minister Stephen Harper. NDP Leader Jack Layton, who used to routinely best Mr. Dion, was chosen by 15%.

In Quebec, 30% picked Mr. Ignatieff as best prime minister, five points more than Mr. Harper.

From Nanos release:

Committed Voters
Liberal Party 34% (+4)
Conservative Party 33% (+1)
NDP 19% (-1)
BQ 7% (-2)
Green Party 7% (-3)
(*Note: Undecided 10%)

Best PM Question: Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Stephen Harper 36% (+1)
Michael Ignatieff 23% (+12)*
Jack Layton 15% (-5)
Gilles Duceppe 5% (-2)
Elizabeth May 5% (-1)
None/ Unsure 17% (-5)
*The number in parenthesis denotes the change from Stephane Dion to Michael Ignatieff as leader.

Ignatieff’s Net Impact on Impression of Liberal Party: As you may know, Stephane Dion recently stepped down as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and Michael Ignatieff was made interim leader. As a result of these changes, has your impression of the Liberal Party become more favourable, less favourable or has it not changed?
(Net Impact is derived by subtracting less favourable from more favourable)
Canada +26
Atlantic Canada +23
Quebec +36
Ontario +29
Western Canada + 17

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Here’s a summary update in this fast-changing political high drama:

• All three Liberal leadership candidates agree to install Stephane Dion as interim leader of the coalition government. (CTV)
• Liberal to get 18 cabinet ministers, NDP 6.
• This will be Canada’s first coalition government in 91 years.
• The plan is to have the coalition to last 30 months.
• Parties agree to $30B stimulus package (CP)
• A “all-star” economic council will help chart the stormy economic waters and calm the markets (CTV). The “stars” are: Paul Martin, Frank McKenna, John Manley and Roy Romanow.
• The three opposition leaders are drafting a letter to Governor-General Michaëlle Jean in which they formally call on her to allow the formation of a coalition government if the Conservatives are defeated in the House of Commons next week. (Globe and Mail)
• Conservative sympathizers were organizing cross-country, anti-coalition protests and Canwest News Service has learned that the Conservative party has put down a deposit on a campaign plane and buses, in the hope that Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean will call another general election next week. (National Post)
• It appears an easy mistake lead the NDP to accidentally give Conservative MP Mike Allen (Tobique-Mactaquac) the coordinates for their private caucus meeting. Parliament emails take the form of LastName.FirstInitial@parl.gc.ca. But there are two people who would normally have Allen.M@parl.gc.ca — Mike Allen and Malcolm Allen (NDP, Welland), who was assigned Allen.Ma@parl.gc.ca. It appears the NDP accidentally sent the coordinates to Allen.M@parl.gc.ca instead of Allen.Ma@parl.gc.ca. It seems like a simple mistake. (democraticSPACE)

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Oh boy… this is better than soaps… glad I stayed at home this weekend watching my laptop and witnessing history in the making… 

———

National Post – Michael Ignatieff will become Prime Minister in a Liberal-led coalition government if the opposition parties succeed in bringing down the
Conservatives in a no-confidence vote in the House of Commons next week and if the Governor-General deems it to be a viable alternative, sources said late last night.

Ignatieff met with lame duck Liberal leader, Stéphane Dion, and leadership candidates Bob Rae and Dominic LeBlanc in Toronto last night and hammered out a deal that would see Dion and Rae step aside, with the latter named to a senior post, likely Foreign Affairs Minister.

Earlier, Dion is understood to have struck a deal with NDP leader Jack Layton in which the New Democrats would get around a quarter of the seats around the Cabinet table, if the coalition bid to unseat the Conservatives is successful. The deal would have a guaranteed two and a half year lifespan.

It is understood that Ignatieff was reluctant to sign on unless he was named interim leader because it would leave Dion, who was recently rejected by the Canadian electorate, as leader.

Prior to the deal being struck, sources close to Ignatieff said he was unlikely to support the deal because of concerns that a coalition government led by Dion would be a “poisoned chalice” for the next leader.

Ignatieff has the support of an overwhelming number of Liberal MPs — more than 50 of the 77 member caucus – so his reluctance would likely have doomed the bid by the opposition parties. Those concerns were eased by the prospect of Ignatieff becoming Prime Minister.

It is understood that the plan will be presented to the Liberal caucus Monday at 1 p.m.

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